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Aberration or new era? False dawn or coronation? Undercooked or in
decline? The answer to these questions and many more will be revealed
over the next few days as Pakistan and England renew rivalries in Abu
Dhabi.
We should resist reading too much into one result. But should Pakistan
win again, then it will be fair to start drawing conclusions about their
revival. And England's enduring problems in Asia.
A glance at the record books suggests that winning at the Sheikh Zayed
Stadium will prove tough. The two previous Tests here have both ended in
draws and have produced three double centuries. It is interesting to
note that, in both instances, Pakistan's captain, Misbah-ul-Haq, won the
toss and inserted the opposition. On the first occasion, South Africa amassed 584 but not before they had been 33 for three, while on the second
occasion, Sri Lanka were dismissed for 197. If there is any life to be
exploited in the pitch, it might well be in the first few hours.
Much of England's success in recent years has come against sides that
have imploded: India, Australia and Pakistan come to mind. All were in
transition and all capitulated under pressure. Pakistan are unlikely to
do that.
Pakistan play, on the whole, solid, sensible cricket. In the first Test,
they were successful through bowling straight, playing straight and
displaying discipline and patience in all departments. They applied the
pressure and England buckled.
That should not be interpreted as faint praise. Success in cricket, as
in all facets of life, is so often reliant more on perspiration than
inspiration. Genius is wonderful but hard work often prevails. In the
likes of Misbah-ul-Haq,
Mohammad Hafeez, Taufeeq Umar, Umar Gul and the underrated Abdur
Rehman, Pakistan have mature cricketers who know what it takes to
prosper at this level. Besides, in Saeed Ajmal and Younis Khan, Pakistan are blessed with a sprinkling of genius.
Ajmal was especially impressive in Dubai. His use of the crease, his
variations in pace and his subtle turn in each direction, presented huge
problems for England. How they combat him in Abu Dhabi may well prove
crucial.
Talk of Pakistan becoming the best team in the world is premature. They
have started well but there is a huge distance to travel before that can
be said. They have won series against Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Sri
Lanka to date. Beating England will provide clearer evidence of
progress.
| It is worth remembering that Ian Bell averaged over 100 in 2011, Kevin Pietersen scored 175 two Tests ago and Eoin Morgan scored a century in the Test before that. | |||
Whatever happens over the next few weeks, the need for Pakistan to
recruit another new coach has surely receded. As interim, Mohsin Khan
has done everything that has been asked of him and more. While he is not
the most hands-on of coaches, he has helped create a calm environment
in which the players can shine. Further talk of Dav Whatmore appears
superfluous.
But make no mistake, this is Misbah's team. He is the one dictating the
tactics, setting the tone and ensuring the happy sense of calm that
currently pervades the squad. He assumed the captaincy with Pakistan
cricket at a crossroads and has, to date, played the hand that fate
dealt him masterfully. Coming from behind to beat his Pakistan team in a
three-Test series will be desperately tough.
If any team can do it, England can. It is almost four years since they
have lost two Tests in a row - against South Africa in 2008 - and, while
only ten teams in history have recovered from one-nil down to win a
three-Test series, England did so as recently as 2008. At least six, and
possibly seven, of the team that played the last Test in that series in
New Zealand will represent England in this game. The last four times
that England have lost a Test, they have bounced back with a win in
their next. But none of those results were against one of the major
teams on Asian pitches.
England have one injury concern. Chris Tremlett has reported stiffness
in his back and side, and took no part in training on Tuesday. He is
most unlikely to play. As a consequence Steven Finn, a proven
wicket-taker but liable to leak runs, and Graeme Onions, a
wicket-to-wicket bowler who could be considered an ideal horse for this
course, will be considered. The spin of Monty Panesar is another option
but there is little precedent for England fielding two spinners in a
four-man attack. Indeed, the last time they did so was in December 2003,
when they drew with Sri Lanka in Kandy.
And there's the rub. England have a tough balancing act to perform.
Excluding Bangladesh, they have won just one Test in Asia since March
2001. In that game, against India in Mumbai in 2006, they fielded two
spinners.
That might suggest the inclusion of Panesar. But the problem for England
is that in that game, they also played three fast bowlers. The presence
of Andrew Flintoff as an allrounder allowed them that luxury but, in
the absence of Tim Bresnan who might have batted at seven and displaced
Eoin Morgan, it is hard to see a way that two spinners can be
accommodated. Perhaps, one day, Ben Stokes or Chris Woakes will solve
that problem. For now, the loss of Bresnan is enormous. It is highly
unlikely that England, after the batting failure of Dubai, will respond
by dropping a batsman to fit in another bowler. But it might well be
their best method of winning.
That issue is compounded by the concerns about their top-order batting.
The openers, with nine of their last 11 partnerships failing to pass 25,
are one issue. The lack of form shown by Kevin Pietersen, Morgan and
Ian Bell is another. But it is worth remembering that Bell averaged over
100 in 2011, Pietersen scored 175 two Tests ago and Eoin Morgan scored a
century in the Test before that. They have had, at present, one bad
game. Nothing more.
It is Andrew Strauss' form that is of greatest concern. With just one
century in 26 Tests and an average of 23 from the start of the Sri Lanka
series, his form cannot be dismissed quite so readily. At the pre-match
media conference, Strauss admitted his lack of runs in Dubai was
"disappointing" before conceding he was "conscious that it's important
as a captain to lead from the front with regards to scoring runs".
England will provide every opportunity for Strauss to rediscover his
form and there is no immediate danger of a change of personnel. But it
could become an issue.
One bad result, as England keep telling us, does not make them a poor side. But two bad results? That is a different matter.
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